• A trading strategy of buying Bitcoin on the Lunar New Year day and selling 10 days later has yielded an average 9% return since 2015.
• This year’s Lunar New Year, the Year of the Rabbit, began on Jan. 22, and if the pattern holds for this year, it could result in a $2,043 price increase by Feb. 1.
• Bitcoin has already had an encouraging start to the Gregorian New Year, recording 38% gains year-to-date.
The crypto financial services platform Matrixport uncovered an intriguing Bitcoin Lunar New Year trading strategy that has worked every year since 2015, with a 100% hit rate of positive returns to date. This strategy involves buying Bitcoin on the day of the Lunar New Year, and then selling 10 days later. According to Twitter user @tier10k, this strategy has yielded an average 9% return between 2015 and 2022.
The Lunar New Year is determined by the second new moon after the winter solstice, so the date of the Lunar New Year varies from year to year. This year, the Year of the Rabbit began on Jan. 22, kicking off 15 days of celebrations that will culminate with the Lantern Festival on Feb. 5. The rabbit is said to represent wealth and prosperity, so there is some hope that the positive momentum from the Lunar New Year will continue for Bitcoin.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $22,700, so if the Lunar New Year pattern holds for 2023, it could result in a $2,043 price increase by the end of Feb. 1. But the Lunar New Year aside, the start of the Gregorian New Year has already been an encouraging one for Bitcoin, recording 38% gains year-to-date and sparking debate on the bear market ending.
The chart below shows the returns from the Lunar New Year trading strategy from 2015 to 2022, with the highest return of 15% coming in 2017, and the lowest return of 1% in 2018.
Source: @tier10k on Twitter.com
It remains to be seen if this pattern will hold for 2023, but with the Gregorian New Year already producing encouraging results, the Year of the Rabbit could be the beginning of a Bitcoin bull run.